A first assessment of organic carbon burial in the West Gironde Mud Patch (Bay of Biscay)
On the Bay of Biscay continental shelf, there are several mid-shelf mud patches including La Grande Vasière to the north, the West Gironde Mud Patch (WGMP) off the Gironde estuary and the Basque Mud Patch close to the Spanish border. In general, these deposits are several meters thick and cover coarser substrate. Questions remain about their storage capability for fine particles and carbon. This work investigates the sedimentation of the WGMP in order to develop a first estimate of organic carbon (OC) burial. Interface sediment cores were collected at nine stations along two cross-shelf transects in October-November 2016. X-radiograph imaging and grain-size analyses were used to characterize sedimentary structures. 210 Pb xs depth profiles were established to calculate sediment (SAR) and mass (MAR) accumulation rates. Sedimentary structures indicate episodic sandy inputs overlying older deposits at proximal sites, and relatively continuous sedimentation at seaward locations. On the outer-central portion of the northern transect, a maximum SAR (0.47 cm yr − 1) was observed, suggesting a depocenter. On the southern transect, excluding two stations where sedimentary inputs appear massive but sporadic, the SARs are lower (<0.3 cm yr − 1). Quantitative estimates of OC burial rates increase seaward with a maximum of 45 gC m − 2 yr − 1. To evaluate carbon loading independent of grain-size variability, OC values were normalized to surface area of sediments (SA). Interestingly, a qualitative comparison of OC burial efficiencies using the OC/SA ratio highlights three groups of sites (low, medium and relatively high OC burial efficiency) which are likely related both to different sedimentary environments and variable deposition conditions linked to local environmental conditions and depth. This work highlights the likely control of hydrodynamic intensity and sedimentary inputs on the amount of OC stored in the WGMP sediments.
(Continental Shelf Research. vol. 221, n° 0278-4343, pp. 104419, 21/04/2026)
EPOC, EPHE, PSL, UB, INSU - CNRS, CNRS, URI
A Bayesian network approach to modelling rip-current drownings and shore-break wave injuries
Abstract. A Bayesian network (BN) approach is used to model and predict shore-break-related injuries and rip-current drowning incidents based on detailed environmental conditions (wave, tide, weather, beach morphology) on the high-energy Gironde coast, southwest France. Six years (2011–2017) of boreal summer (15 June–15 September) surf zone injuries (SZIs) were analysed, comprising 442 (fatal and non-fatal) drownings caused by rip currents and 715 injuries caused by shore-break waves. Environmental conditions at the time of the SZIs were used to train two separate Bayesian networks (BNs), one for rip-current drownings and the other one for shore-break wave injuries. Each BN included two so-called “hidden” exposure and hazard variables, which are not observed yet interact with several of the observed (environmental) variables, which in turn limit the number of BN edges. Both BNs were tested for varying complexity using K-fold cross-validation based on multiple performance metrics. Results show a poor to fair predictive ability of the models according to the different metrics. Shore-break-related injuries appear more predictable than rip-current drowning incidents using the selected predictors within a BN, as the shore-break BN systematically performed better than the rip-current BN. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were performed to address the influence of environmental data variables and their interactions on exposure, hazard and resulting life risk. Most of our findings are in line with earlier SZI and physical hazard-based work; that is, more SZIs are observed for warm sunny days with light winds; long-period waves, with specifically more shore-break-related injuries at high tide and for steep beach profiles; and more rip-current drownings near low tide with near-shore-normal wave incidence and strongly alongshore non-uniform surf zone morphology. The BNs also provided fresh insight, showing that rip-current drowning risk is approximately equally distributed between exposure (variance reduction Vr=14.4 %) and hazard (Vr=17.4 %), while exposure of water user to shore-break waves is much more important (Vr=23.5 %) than the hazard (Vr=10.9 %). Large surf is found to decrease beachgoer exposure to shore-break hazard, while this is not observed for rip currents. Rapid change in tide elevation during days with large tidal range was also found to result in more drowning incidents. We advocate that such BNs, providing a better understanding of hazard, exposure and life risk, can be developed to improve public safety awareness campaigns, in parallel with the development of more skilful risk predictors to anticipate high-life-risk days.
(Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. vol. 21, n° 1561-8633, pp. 2075-2091, 21/04/2026)
EPOC, EPHE, PSL, UB, INSU - CNRS, CNRS, BPH, UB, INSERM
Fluorescence analysis allows to predict the oxidative capacity of humic quinones in dissolved organic matter: implication for pollutant degradation
Dissolved organic matter (DOM) controls the degradation and sequestration of aquatic pollutants and, in turn, water quality. In particular, pollutant degradation is performed by oxidant species that are generated by exposure of DOM to solar light, yet, since DOM is a very complex mixture of poorly known substances, the relationships between potential oxidant precursors in DOM and their oxydative capacity is poorly known. Here, we hypothesized that production of oxidant species could be predicted using fluorescence analysis. We analysed water samples from an alluvial plain by fluorescence spectroscopy; the three-dimensional spectra were then decomposed into seven individual components using a multi-way algorithm. Components include a protein-like fluorophore, e.g. tryptophan-like and tyrosine-like, three humic fluorophores, 2-naphthoxyacetic acid, and a by-product. We compared component levels with the ability of water samples to generate reactive species under solar light. The results show a strong correlation between reactive species production and the intensity of two humic-like fluorophores assigned to reduced quinones. Monitoring these fluorophores should thus allow to predict the ability of DOM degradation of pollutants in surface waters.
(Environmental Chemistry Letters. vol. 19, n° 1610-3653, pp. 1857-1863, 21/04/2026)
ICCF, SIGMA Clermont, INC-CNRS, UCA [2017-2020], CNRS, EPOC, EPHE, PSL, UB, INSU - CNRS, CNRS, GEOLAB, UBP, IR SHS UNILIM, UNILIM, UCA [2017-2020], CNRS, UCA
Response of water-exchange capacity to human interventions in Jiaozhou Bay, China
Intensive anthropogenic activities, land reclamation, a cross-bay bridge construction, and the correction of Red Island have significantly changed the topography of Jiaozhou Bay (JZB) in northern China over the last decades. To quantify the effects of these modifications on the water-exchange capacity of the bay, the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model was used to calculate basin, regional and local residence time (RT) in the years 1935, 1966, 1986, 2000, 2008, and 2013, covering the periods of significant land reclamation. The bridge construction and a government plan to restore Red Island were also included in additional modelling scenarios. The regional RT increased significantly between 1935 and 1986, by 77% in the northeast, 40% in the west and 56% in the north-bridge regions, concurrent with the largest land reclamation. The regional RT continued to increase from 1986 to 2000 in the northeast and north-bridge regions but decreased slightly from 2000. These patterns can be explained by the general decreasing trend of the tidal prism from 1935 to 2000, up to 66% in the northeast region. A significant decrease in residual currents from 1935 to 1966 probably also contributed to explain this trend. The bridge construction had only a limited effect on regional RT. The restoration of Red Island would have reduced the regional RT in the northeast region from 83 to 60 days. The simulation of tracer transport, and therefore calculation of local RT, was found to be sensitive to the scheme used to formulate the horizontal diffusion coefficient, which should be taking into account when comparing results from different model configurations.
(Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science. vol. 249, n° 0272-7714, pp. 107088, 21/04/2026)
UNSW, EPOC, EPHE, PSL, UB, INSU - CNRS, CNRS
Impact of Southern Ocean surface conditions on deep ocean circulation during the LGM: a model analysis
Changes in water mass distribution are considered to be a significant contributor to the atmospheric CO2 concentration drop to around 186 ppm recorded during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Yet simulating a glacial Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in agreement with paleotracer data remains a challenge, with most models from previous Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) phases showing a tendency to simulate a strong and deep North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) instead of the shoaling inferred from proxy records of water mass distribution. Conversely, the simulated Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) is often reduced compared to its pre-industrial volume, and the Atlantic Ocean stratification is underestimated with respect to paleoproxy data. Inadequate representation of surface conditions, driving deep convection around Antarctica, may explain inaccurately simulated bottom water properties in the Southern Ocean. We investigate here the impact of a range of surface conditions in the Southern Ocean in the iLOVECLIM model using nine simulations obtained with different LGM boundary conditions associated with the ice sheet reconstruction (e.g., changes of elevation, bathymetry, and land–sea mask) and/or modeling choices related to sea-ice export, formation of salty brines, and freshwater input. Based on model–data comparison of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice, we find that only simulations with a cold Southern Ocean and a quite extensive sea-ice cover show an improved agreement with proxy records of sea ice, despite systematic model biases in the seasonal and regional patterns. We then show that the only simulation which does not display a much deeper NADW is obtained by parameterizing the sinking of brines along Antarctica, a modeling choice reducing the open-ocean convection in the Southern Ocean. These results highlight the importance of the representation of convection processes, which have a large impact on the water mass properties, while the choice of boundary conditions appears secondary for the model resolution and variables considered in this study.
(Climate of the Past. vol. 17, n° 1814-9324, pp. 1139-1159, 21/04/2026)
CLIM, LSCE, UVSQ, INSU - CNRS, CNRS, DRF (CEA), CEA, LSCE, UVSQ, INSU - CNRS, CNRS, DRF (CEA), CEA, VU, EPOC, EPHE, PSL, UB, INSU - CNRS, CNRS, LOCEAN-PROTEO, LOCEAN, MNHN, IRD, INSU - CNRS, SU, CNRS, IPSL (FR_636), ENS-PSL, UVSQ, CEA, INSU - CNRS, X, CNES, SU, CNRS, UPCité
Juvenile growth deficit as an early alert of cockle Cerastoderma edule mortality
In the population dynamics of bi-phasic marine invertebrates, the fitness of one stage in the life of a cohort affects that of the following stage. This effect makes the prediction of the fate of a cohort challenging. We conducted a 22 yr monthly survey of a population of cockles Cerastoderma edule focussed on the juvenile stage. Two types of years were distinguished in terms of cohort longevity: a low-mortality group (‘L’) and a high-mortality group (‘H’). The cockle shell lengths of the 0+ cohorts was higher in the L group, in August and September. A cohort could hereby confidently be assigned to the L or H group as soon as August. Maximum cockle abundance in the cohorts, parasite load, or date of recruitment did not discriminate the groups, while an early date for the peak of the 0+ cohort abundance could be related to the L group. The maximum air temperature and the chl a concentration in July were higher in the H group, whereas the minimum salinity during the month of September was slightly lower in the H group of years. Therefore, a juvenile shell length under a given threshold was identified as an early alert for a short lifespan of the cockle cohort. This long-term analysis contributes to the deeper understanding of the population dynamics of bi-phasic invertebrates. The success of juveniles is not solely related to the intensity of recruitment or mortality by predation, but could also be linked to their fitness, their growth rates appearing as a proxy.
(Marine Ecology Progress Series. vol. 679, n° 0171-8630, pp. 85-99, 21/04/2026)
EPOC, EPHE, PSL, UB, INSU - CNRS, CNRS, IMS, UB, CNRS
Last millennium climate variability of the varved Lake Jeinimeni geochemical record from NE Chilean Patagonia
Paleoclimate studies in Patagonia show a high Holocene climate variability, strongly controlled by the intensity and latitudinal position of the Southern Westerly Winds. In this study, environmental and climate variability, and in particular winter precipitation, was reconstructed over the last centuries through sedimentological and geochemical analyses of a core from Lake Jeinimeni in North East Patagonia. Visual description, X-ray radiographies and thin section observations point to finely laminated sediments, made by fine sands and light brown clayey silts forming an annual deposition (varves) occasionally interrupted by two Hudson volcano-related tephras and 15 pluri-millimetre to pluri-centimetre coarser sandy to gravely layers. Varve counting confirmed by 210Pb and 137Cs indicates a detrital sequence of at least 750 yr. Based on a correlation with local meteorological data for the 1930–1988AD interval, varve thickness and statistical treatment of XRF geochemical data give information on transport pathway and sedimentary deposit conditions. The sandy laminae correspond to the deposition of high sedimentary load delivered by austral spring snowmelt whereas the clayey silt laminae result of particle settling in the water column during low hydrodynamical conditions. Thicker varves observed in dry conditions underline the importance of aeolian transport in sedimentary deposition. During locally dry and windy summer, the wind may erode and remobilise the sedimentary deposits along the lake margins. The sandy and gravely layers record massive erosional events due to proximal watershed perturbation driven by climatic or tectonic mechanisms. The clastic varves of Lake Jeinimeni document environmental decadal to multidecadal variability in East Patagonia over the last centuries. The more pronounced sediment transition around 1750 CE is consistent with the inception of the Little Ice Age-type event, in agreement with North Patagonian paleoclimate reconstructions derived from glacier advances, lacustrine varve thickness and tree-ring records.
(Quaternary Science Reviews. vol. 269, n° 0277-3791, pp. 107134, 21/04/2026)
AGEs, ULiège, UdeC, UG, KU Leuven, ULiège, EPOC, EPHE, PSL, UB, INSU - CNRS, CNRS
High-resolution temperature and precipitation variability of southwest Anatolia since 1730 CE from Lake Gölcük sedimentary records
We report high-resolution multiproxy analyses [lithology, μXRF and magnetic susceptibility (MS)] of two short gravity sediment cores from the crater Lake Gölcük, southwest Turkey. Our results provide a detailed hydroclimatic record for the last ~290 years. Aided with factor analysis of μXRF data and 210Pb and 137Cs dating, our multiproxy data show that the Lake Gölcük records documented a series of wet and dry periods between ~ 1730 (±71) and ~ 2018 (±3) CE. Wet periods are evidenced by dark olive green mixed lithology (sandy, clay, and silts) and high values in MS and log(Sr/Ca). On the other hand, dry periods are associated with light olive green clayey mud lithology and high values in log(Ca/K). We relate the wet periods to negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO–) and the dry periods to NAO+. Additionally, all wet periods are related with time of low solar activity and dry periods, except Dalton Minimum, are related with periods of high solar activity. Consequently, we suggest that hydroclimatic changes observed in the Lake Gölcük sedimentary records were caused by the influence of largescale atmospheric circulation and solar activity.
(Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences. vol. 45, n° 1300-0985, 21/04/2026)
EPOC, EPHE, PSL, UB, INSU - CNRS, CNRS
Contrasting northern and southern European winter climate trends during the Last Interglacial
The Last Interglacial (LIG; 130–115 ka) is an important test bed for climate science as an instance of significantly warmer than preindustrial global temperatures. However, LIG climate patterns remain poorly resolved, especially for winter, affected by a suite of strong feedbacks such as changes in sea-ice cover in the high latitudes. We present a synthesis of winter temperature and precipitation proxy data from the Atlantic seaboard of Europe, spanning from southern Iberia to the Arctic. Our data reveal distinct, opposite latitudinal climate trends, including warming winters seen in the European Arctic while cooling and drying occurred in southwest Europe over the LIG. Climate model simulations for 130 and 120 ka suggest these contrasting climate patterns were affected by a shift toward an atmospheric circulation regime with an enhanced meridional pressure gradient and strengthened midlatitude westerlies, leading to a strong reduction in precipitation across southern Europe.
(Geology. vol. 49, n° 0091-7613, pp. 1220-1224, 21/04/2026)
EPOC, EPHE, PSL, UB, INSU - CNRS, CNRS, USN
Hydrodynamics of a hyper-tidal estuary influenced by the world's second largest tidal power station (Rance estuary, France)
The Rance estuary is a relatively small low-discharge steep-sided ria, located along the Brittany coast in northern France, with a maximum spring tidal range of 13.5 m. Taking advantage of this hyper-tidal regime, the first and currently the second largest operational tidal power station in the world was built at the estuary's mouth and has been in operation since the 1960s. Despite the well-known effect of damping of estuarine water levels, little attention has been given to quantifying the influence of the plant on the propagation and asymmetry of the tidal wave inside the estuary. In this study, hydrodynamics and tidal wave patterns were analyzed in this anthropogenically influenced estuarine system. A two-dimensional depth-averaged numerical model of the Rance estuary was developed. Two scenarios without the tidal power plant involving the dam's pre- and post-construction bathymetry (1957 and 2018 respectively) and present-day conditions scenarios were designed, to highlight the impact of bed evolution and the tidal power station on hydrodynamics and tidal asymmetry. Numerical results showed that, without the structure, bathymetric evolution did not substantially influence estuarine hydrodynamics. Nevertheless, on the estuary-side of the dam, the presence of the tidal power plant induced (i) a decrease in both tidal range and tidal prism, (ii) an increase of low water levels, and (iii) a decrease in both flood and ebb currents. Contrastingly, the region close to the structure reacted differently to plant operating modes, with an increase in flood currents (ebb currents) upstream of the sluice gates (downstream of the turbines). For both the natural condition and the artificially-induced hydrodynamic forcing due to the presence of the plant, numerical results showed that the Rance estuary mainly exhibits flood-dominant behavior, with a longer duration of falling than rising water and stronger peak flood currents than ebb currents. Spanning a period of approximately 60 years, this study presents a quantitative analysis of the influence of the tidal power station on the hydrodynamics in the Rance estuary, and its possible consequences for sediment dynamics. This approach is novel for this particular enclosed water body, characterized by the presence of a dam at its mouth and a lock at its uppermost limit.
(Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science. vol. 250, n° 0272-7714, 21/04/2026)
EDF [E.D.F.], EPOC, EPHE, PSL, UB, INSU - CNRS, CNRS