Predicting drowning from sea and weather forecasts: development and validation of a model on surf beaches of southwestern France
Objective To predict the coast-wide risk of drowning along the surf beaches of Gironde, southwestern France. Methods Data on rescues and drownings were collected from the Medical Emergency Center of Gironde (SAMU 33). Seasonality, holidays, weekends, weather and metocean conditions were considered potentially predictive. Logistic regression models were fitted with data from 2011 to 2013 and used to predict 2015-2017 events employing weather and ocean forecasts. Results Air temperature, wave parameters, seasonality and holidays were associated with drownings. Prospective validation was performed on 617 days, covering 232 events (rescues and drownings) reported on 104 different days. The area under the curve (AUC) of the daily risk prediction model (combined with 3-day forecasts) was 0.82 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.86). The AUC of the 3-hour step model was 0.85 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.88). Conclusions Drowning events along the Gironde surf coast can be anticipated up to 3 days in advance. Preventative messages and rescue preparations could be increased as the forecast risk increased, especially during the off-peak season, when the number of available rescuers is low.
(Injury Prevention. vol. 28, n° 1353-8047, pp. 16-22, 01/02/2022)
BPH, UB, INSERM, CHU Bordeaux, EPOC, EPHE, PSL, UB, INSU - CNRS, CNRS
Status of Dieldrin in vegetable growing soils across a peri-urban agricultural area according to an adapted sampling strategy
Since the fifties, organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) had been used in agriculture to protect vegetables. Two decades after their ban by the Stockholm convention in 2001, OCPs are still present in agricultural soils inducing vegetable contamination with concentrations above Maximum Residue Level (MRL). This is a major concern for a 5 km2 peri-urban vegetable growing valley located in the south west of France. In the present work, the sampling method was developed to clarify the spatial distribution of one OCP, Dieldrin, and its relationship with soil properties at the scale of study area. A total of 99 soil samples was collected for physicochemical analyses and Dieldrin concentrations. Results show Dieldrin concentrations in soils up to 204 μg kg−1. The horizontal distribution of this pesticide is heterogeneous at the study area scale but homogeneous in each reference plot studied. About 85% of the contamination was located in the top soil layers (0–40 cm depth), but Dieldrin may still be quantified at a depth of 80 cm. Among all soil physicochemical parameters analysed, SOM was the most significantly related (P < 10−4) with Dieldrin concentrations, once different grain size fractions were considered. Moreover, results indicate a 33 times higher Dieldrin concentration and/or extractability for coarse sand than for other grain size fractions. These results show that the developed sampling method is adapted for the study area scale as it helps understanding the factors influencing the spatial distribution of Dieldrin. Historical amendments are the predominant factor for the horizontal contamination and deep ploughing for the vertical contamination. Also, the variations of coarse sand repartition in soils prevents identification of relationships between SOM and Dieldrin contamination in bulk soil. Further investigation is required to explain these relationships but these results highlight why no clear relationship between OCPs and SOM was previously identified.
(Environmental Pollution. vol. 295, n° 0269-7491, pp. 118666, 01/02/2022)
EPOC, EPHE, PSL, UB, INSU - CNRS, CNRS, Bordeaux INP, UBM
Decadal beach-dune profile monitoring along a 230-km high-energy sandy coast: Aquitaine, southwest France
Large-scale coastal monitoring programs are challenging to maintain over time but are necessary to understand and further predict complex coastal evolution and resilience. The 230 km-long Aquitaine coast is a high-energy meso-macrotidal coast composed of beach-dune systems showing dramatic morphological changes at seasonal and interannual scales. This study investigates the alongshore variability in beach-dune response based on a unique 11-year dataset of 41 spaced transects surveyed yearly in spring. The dataset is completed by interspersed autumn LiDAR surveys for seasonal analysis. Several beach-dune morphological descriptors are developed, such as beach-dune volume, beach width and different shoreline proxies delimiting the intertidal zone, the beach face and the dune face. The Aquitaine beach-dune system is characterised by a north-south gradient, from chronically eroding dunes backing low-elevation dissipative beaches in the north, to slowly accreting dunes backing wide beaches in the south, through a range of intermediate beach-dune states. Time- and spatially-averaged shoreline (dune foot position) trend is −0.5 m/year (erosion), with local variations ranging from −5.9 m/year to +2.1 m/year. During the 2013–2014 winter widespread erosion was observed, with the shoreline eroding by 13 m and 8 m on average along the Gironde and Landes coasts, respectively. This dataset provides insight into the timing, magnitude and spatial variability of beach-dune recovery from the outstandingly erosive 2013–2014 winter. We also show that local beach-dune volume is a good proxy for long-term shoreline trend. It is advocated that such large-scale coastal monitoring by means of single beach profiles spaced and distributed along 10–100 km of coast is a cheap and efficient approach to address coastal changes at regional scale, which can bring complementary information to aerial photographs interpretation to determine long-term shoreline evolution trend and thus contribute to support sustainable coastal management and planning.
(Applied Geography. vol. 139, n° 0143-6228, pp. 102645, 01/02/2022)
BRGM, EPOC, EPHE, PSL, UB, INSU - CNRS, CNRS, OCNA
Ocean Productivity in the Gulf of Cadiz Over the Last 50 kyr
Reconstructions of ocean primary productivity (PP) help to explain past and present biogeochemical cycles and climate changes in the oceans. We document PP variations over the last 50 kyr in a currently oligotrophic subtropical region, the Gulf of Cadiz. Data combine refined results from previous investigations on dinocyst assemblages, alkenones, and stable isotopes (18O, 13C) in planktonic (Globigerina bulloides) and endobenthic (Uvigerina mediterranea) foraminifera from cores MD04-2805 CQ and MD99-2339, with new isotopic measurements on epibenthic (Cibicides pachyderma-Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi) foraminifera and dinocyst-based estimates of PP using the new n = 1,968 modern database. We constrain PP variations and export production by integrating qualitative information from bioindicators with dinocyst-based quantitative reconstructions such as PP and seasonal sea surface temperature and information about remineralization from the benthic Δδ13C (difference between epibenthic and endobenthic foraminiferal δ13C signatures). This study also includes new information on alkenone-based SST and total organic carbon which provides insights into the relationship between past regional hydrological activity and PP regime change. We show that PP, carbon export, and remineralization were generally high in the NE subtropical Atlantic Ocean during the last glacial period and that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) had lower Δδ13C than the Heinrich Stadials with sustained high PP, likely allowing enhanced carbon sequestration. We link these PP periods to the dynamics of upwelling, active almost year-round during sadials, but restricted to spring-summer during interstadials and LGM, like today. During interstadials, nutrient advection through freshwater inputs during autumn-winter needs also to be considered to fully understand PP regimes.
(Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology. vol. 37, n° 2572-4525, 01/02/2022)
GEO-OCEAN, UBS, IFREMER, INSU - CNRS, UBO EPE, CNRS, EPOC, EPHE, PSL, UB, INSU - CNRS, CNRS, GEOTOP, EPM, UdeM, UQAT, UQAR, UQAM, KOPRI, CCMAR, UAlg, LOCEAN-PROTEO, LOCEAN, MNHN, IRD, INSU - CNRS, SU, CNRS, IPSL (FR_636), ENS-PSL, UVSQ, CEA, INSU - CNRS, X, CNES, SU, CNRS, UPCité
Foraminiferal Distribution in Two Estuarine Intertidal Mudflats of the French Atlantic Coast: Testing the Marine Influence Index
This study focuses on the foraminiferal distribution on intertidal mudflats of two contrasted estuaries (Auray and Vie) along the French Atlantic coast. In both estuaries, the foraminiferal communities are dominated by Haynesina germanica and the Ammonia tepida group. Stations located near the outlets show a high diversity and abundance of species of the genus Elphidium. Stations in the inner estuary show a higher proportion of agglutinated species (Ammotium salsum, Ammobaculites agglutinans). Multivariate statistical analysis suggests that the distance to the sea and the percentage of fine sediment (<63 µm) are the two main parameters explaining the foraminiferal distribution. Chemical analyses of the sediment show that the two studied estuaries are not affected by major anthropogenic pollution, so that the faunas should mainly reflect the natural controlling parameters. Three indices of environmental quality commonly used in coastal areas show counter-intuitive differences between stations, suggesting that these indices may be less reliable for use in intertidal estuarine mudflats. The newly developed Marine Influence Index (MII) integrates three major ecological factors: the position of the sampling point on the salinity gradient, the emergence time at low tide and the relative importance of fresh water discharge. In our dataset, MII shows significant correlations with the controlling environmental parameters (distance to the sea, percentage grains < 63 µm), as well as with the foraminiferal patterns (PCA axis 1, species richness, percentage of Elphidium spp. and Quinqueloculina spp.). These results suggest that the MII explains a substantial part of the faunal variability on estuarine intertidal mudflats, and can be used to detect deviations from the natural distribution patterns in response to anthropogenic pollution.
(Water. vol. 14, n° 2073-4441, pp. 645, 01/02/2022)
LPG, UM, UA, INSU - CNRS, CNRS, Nantes univ - UFR ST, Nantes Univ, UNINE, EPOC, EPHE, PSL, UB, INSU - CNRS, CNRS, IRHS, UA, INRAE, Institut Agro, IRHS-SMS, IRHS, UA, INRAE, Institut Agro
Intergenerational effects of environmentally-aged microplastics on the Crassostrea gigas
(Environmental Pollution. vol. 294, n° 0269-7491, pp. 118600, 01/02/2022)
LIENSs, INSU - CNRS, ULR, CNRS, ULR, EPOC, EPHE, PSL, UB, INSU - CNRS, CNRS
Organohalogenated Micropollutants: Polybrominated Disphenyl Ether (PBDE) Contamination Gradient of the Seine River in France
The Spatio-temporal variability of the Seine River contamination by organic micropollutants such as Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) was investigated in three sites downstream and upstream of Paris between February and November 2010. The mean concentrations of Σ tri-hepta BDE observed at Marnay-Sur-Seine (upstream Paris) are 2.7 times lower than those measured at Bougival-Sur-Seine (downstream Paris), while this ratio is equal to 1.8 for BDE-209. Besides, close concentrations are observed at both downstream sites. The concentration gradient was also observed for PBDE concentrations in sediments collected with particle traps. The PBDE temporal evolution was related to particulate organic matter content which is controlled by river flow variations between February to November. The variation in fluxes of these pollutants seems to result from a regular contribution (case of Bougival and Triel-Sur-Seine) and of a diffuse contribution, case of Marnay-Sur-Seine.
(pp. 231-234, 28/01/2022)
EPOC, EPHE, PSL, UB, INSU - CNRS, CNRS
Biodiversité et fonctionnement de l’écosystème benthique dans la Vasière Ouest Gironde
Les grands fleuves influencent fortement certaines régions côtières (i.e., les Riverdominated Ocean Margins, ou RiOMar), qui présentent de forts taux de sédimentation et auxquelles sont associés des communautés benthiques et des processus biogéochimiques dont le fonctionnement varie en fonction de la dynamique temporelle des flux particulaires et de leur interaction avec l'hydrodynamisme. La Vasière Ouest-Gironde (VOG) constitue un modèle pertinent pour ce type de systèmes puisqu’elle constitue la principale zone de dépôt primaire des particules issues de l'estuaire de la Gironde, et qu’elle est située dans un environnement hautement énergétique. Bien que sa dynamique sédimentaire ait fait l’objet de nombreux travaux, l’étude des caractéristiques (dont la matière organique associée) des sédiments superficiels, et de la macrofaune benthique y a été jusqu'à présent négligée. L’objectif de cette thèse consiste à mieux décrire la structuration spatio-temporelle de l’écosystème benthique de la VOG, via l’étude de la matière organique particulaire (MOP) sédimentée ainsi que de la composition de la macrofaune benthique et de son activité. Une comparaison a par ailleurs été effectuée avec le prodelta du Rhône qui a déjà beaucoup été étudié. Bien qu’également situé en zone tempérée, celui-ci diffère en effet de la VOG à la fois par la saisonnalité plus marquée des apports fluviaux ainsi que par la plus faible intensité de l'hydrodynamisme dans la zone réceptrice. Une campagne synoptique (juin 2018, 32 stations) et 4 campagnes saisonnières (5 stations le long d’un gradient côte-large, octobre 2016-avril 2018) ont été réalisées sur la VOG dans des conditions de débits et d’hydrodynamisme contrastées. Une large gamme de paramètres a été mesurée : (1) caractéristiques des sédiments superficiels (granulométrie, surfaces spécifiques, descripteurs quantitatifs et qualitatifs de la MOP), (2) composition de la macrofaune, et (3) traces d’activité biologique (imagerie de profils sédimentaires). Sur la base de l’analyse de la distribution spatiale de ces paramètres, les résultats obtenus confirment la subdivision de la VOG en une zone proximale et une zone distale qui avait déjà été mise en évidence par des études sédimentologiques. Ils montrent l’existence de gradients de profondeur (i.e., entre zones proximale et distale et à l’intérieur de la zone distale) marqués pour la plupart de ces paramètres. L’analyse des corrélations entre ces variations spatiales et celles de plusieurs facteurs de contrôle potentiels suggère le rôle prédominant de l’hydrodynamisme comparé à celui du débit de la Gironde et du chalutage de fond. Mes résultats montrent également l’existence de variations temporelles dont la composante saisonnière est liée à l’efflorescence printanière, et à laquelle se superpose une tendance interannuelle entre 2016 et 2018 pour la composition de la macrofaune benthique. Dans le cas de cette dernière, et pour les 3 stations déjà échantillonnées en 2010, mes résultats montrent enfin l’existence d’importants changements temporels entre 2010 et 2016-2018. Ces changements sont attribués à la succession de tempêtes exceptionnelles intervenues durant l’hiver 2013/2014, qui aurait profondément perturbé l’écosystème benthique de la VOG et initié une séquence de cicatrisation. De manière générale, une différence importante avec le prodelta du Rhône réside dans le rôle majeur joué par l’hydrodynamisme (i.e., par rapport aux apports fluviaux) dans le contrôle de la structuration spatio-temporelle des paramètres étudiés. Cette différence tend à valider la transposition aux zones tempérées de la typologie des RiOMar jusqu’ici établie sur des bases biogéochimiques et principalement à partir d’exemples tropicaux et subtropicaux.
(28/01/2022)
EPOC, EPHE, PSL, UB, INSU - CNRS, CNRS
Three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the Rance estuary (France) influenced by the world’s second largest tidal power plant
(LHB Hydroscience Journal. vol. 108, 27/01/2022)
EPOC, EPHE, PSL, UB, INSU - CNRS, CNRS, EDF R&D STEP, EDF R&D, EDF [E.D.F.], LHSV, ENPC, EDF R&D, EDF [E.D.F.]
Reconstructing Antarctic winter sea-ice extent during Marine Isotope Stage 5e
Environmental conditions during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e (130-116 ka) represent an important "process analogue" for understanding the climatic responses to present and future anthropogenic warming. The response of Antarctic sea ice to global warming is particularly uncertain due to the short length of the observational record. Reconstructing Antarctic winter sea-ice extent during MIS 5e therefore provides insights into the temporal and spatial patterns of sea-ice change under a warmer-than-present climate. This study presents new MIS 5e records from nine marine sediment cores located south of the Antarctic Polar Front between 55 and 70 • S. Winter sea-ice extent and sea-surface temperatures are reconstructed using marine diatom assemblages and a modern analogue technique transfer function, and changes in these environmental variables between the three Southern Ocean sectors are investigated. The Atlantic and East Indian sector records show much more variable MIS 5e winter sea-ice extent and sea-surface temperatures than the Pacific sector records. High variability in the Atlantic sector winter sea-ice extent is attributed to high glacial meltwater flux in the Weddell Sea, indicated by increased abundances of the diatom species Eucampia antarctica and Fragilariopsis cylindrus. The high variability in the East Indian sector winter sea-ice extent is conversely believed to result from large latitudinal migrations of the flow bands of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, inferred from latitudinal shifts in the sea-surface temperature isotherms. Overall, these findings suggest that Pacific sector winter sea ice displays a low sensitivity to warmer climates. The different variability and sensitivity of Antarctic winter sea-ice extent in the three Southern Ocean sectors during MIS 5e may have significant implications for the Southern Hemisphere climatic system under future warming.
(Climate of the Past. vol. 18, n° 1814-9324, pp. 129 - 146, 24/01/2022)
EPOC, EPHE, PSL, UB, INSU - CNRS, CNRS